Weekly news overview (August 30 – September 6, 2024)

Please see below weekly overview of the most important news to keep you informed about significant business developments in Ukraine.

• In July 2024, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 2.7% [±1%] compared to July last year. The government reported a 4.0% growth rate for the first seven months, in line with forecasts, with real GDP expected to reach 3.5% by year-end. However, a skilled labor shortage is slowing business activity. Domestic trade grew in July, driven by rising consumer demand, while construction was boosted by government-funded infrastructure repairs. Agriculture expanded, supported by a strong winter crop harvest and stable livestock demand, although poultry producers face higher energy costs. Industry remains active due to electricity imports, but rising energy costs, security risks, infrastructure damage, and labor issues continue to limit growth.

• The Government of Sweden has approved an additional SEK 500 million (approximately USD 49 million) in support for heating and electricity supply in Ukraine. According to World Bank calculations, the support could help generate electricity for 185,000 people, making this Sweden’s largest contribution yet to Ukrainian energy supply. The initiative encompasses two gas turbines for electricity production in the initial phase. The production facility will be protected so as to minimise the damaging effects of Russian attacks.

Changes in Ukraine’s government: on September 5, the Ukrainian Parliament approved the appointment of nine new cabinet members. New Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration - Minister of Justice, Deputy Prime Minister for Reconstruction - Minister of Community and Territorial Development, as well as the heads of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Strategic Industries, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the Ministry of Veterans Affairs, the Ministry of Culture and Strategic Communications, the Ministry of Environment, and the Ministry of Youth and Sports.

Fitch upgraded Ukraine's credit rating following its debt restructuring. Fitch gave Ukraine's newly-restructured international bonds a 'CCC' rating, reflecting high credit risk due to the ongoing war. As a results of the restructuring, Ukraine's state and state-guaranteed debt decreased by approximately USD 9 billion. The country remains in "selective default" on foreign currency debt. Fitch expects large fiscal deficits of 17.5% of GDP in 2024 and 15.3% in 2025, with uncertainty beyond 2025 due to factors like U.S. elections and EU financing. Ukraine's recent debt restructuring involved over USD 20 billion and is its second in a decade, following one in 2015 after Russia's annexation of Crimea.